TAG Risk Matrix Shows Both Positive and Negative Trends

• In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we look at the Risk Matrix. Read more below.
• In Flu Season News: According to the WHO global flu update (for the first half of August), flu levels are seeming to remain low in both hemispheres. While there has been an increase in India and Nepal, flu elsewhere is sporadic. There is evidence that this year’s influenza season is tilted towards influenza A as most samples subtyped thus far fall into this category.
  • As we advance into the flu season, TAG will report on Weekly Flu Season Updates on Tuesdays, starting next week.
• The total number of countries now reporting the Delta variant is 170 countries. Following with EU standards, Italy has added restrictions to unvaccinated travelers coming in from the U.S., they will now be required to quarantine for 5 days.
• While vaccinations have risen in August, with 52.6% of American being fully vaccinated and 61.9% having received at least one vaccine dose, COVID-19 cases continue to reach new daily highs across the United States with daily average hospitalization rates topping 100,000 (with three times as many people dying of COVID-19 in August – about 27,000 Americans – than in July). As Labor Day Weekend also approaches, the CDC has warned that unvaccinated Americans refrain from traveling over the holiday weekend.
• 70% of adults in the European Union are now fully vaccinated. If accounting for children and teenagers also vaccinated, “more than 55 percent of the overall E.U. population has been fully vaccinated, compared with 52 percent in the United States, 61 percent in Israel, and 64 percent in Britain.”
• In the last 3 weeks, more than 500,000 children have tested positive for COVID-19; experts recommend the necessitation of mask mandates to allow for the safe return to in-person learning.
• The WHO is currently monitoring a new coronavirus variant of concern named “Mu” (B.1.621) which was first identified in Colombia in January 2021. There is concern that the variant contains “mutations that indicate a risk of resistance to vaccines” and can have “mutations connected to immune escape, similar to what was seen with the Beta variant.” This variant has now been seen in a total of 39 countries including other South American countries and also in Europe; although its prevalence globally is <0.1%, it accounts for 39% of all cases in Colombia.
• High-risk allergy patients have low reactions rates to the Pfizer vaccine, come findings from a new JAMA Network Open study of 429 patients who were “considered to be high-risk for allergic reactions against the Pfizer” vaccine.
• Recent research published in the Journal of the American Society for Nephrology from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis that explored federal data is finding that there is “a significant decline in kidney function among those dubbed COVID-19 long-haulers — and even among those who had mild infections of the virus […] Known as the silent killer, kidney dysfunction and disease tend to be free of pain and other symptoms — so much so that the National Kidney Foundation estimates that 90% of people with ailing kidneys don’t know it. Kidney disease affects 37 million people in the U.S. and is one of the nation’s leading causes of death.” The study further found that people who were infected with COVID-19 and were not hospitalized had a “15% higher risk of suffering from a major adverse kidney event such as chronic kidney disease, a 30% higher risk of developing acute kidney injury, and a 215% (more than twofold) higher risk of acquiring end-stage kidney disease.”
• In the latest MMWR, “at least 180 coronavirus infections in three states have been traced to an Illinois church camp for teenagers and an affiliated men’s conference that did not require attendees to be vaccinated or tested for the virus” in June, reports the New York Times. While there are thus far no deaths, 5 people have been hospitalized. However, from this event, at least 1,000 people in four states were exposed!
• A new report has found that the COVID-19 recession has pushed social security insolvency up a year from 2035 to 2034. By 2034 “the new projections in the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees reports indicate that Social Security’s massive trust fund will be unable to pay full benefit[s].”
• Finally, a massive study of 340,000 adults across 600 villages in rural Bangladesh further highlight the importance of utilizing surgical masks to limit the spread of coronavirus.

Food Safety & Public Health:

• The FDA will hold its 2021 Retail Food Protection Seminar on September 13 – 16, 2021. Registration for the virtual event is free and open to all interested in retail food safety, including state, local, territorial, and tribal regulators, industry, and academia. Retail modernization is a priority in the New Era of Smarter Food Safety blueprint. FDA is exploring the best ways to further modernize and help ensure the safety of foods sold at restaurants and other retail establishments. Register now for free!
• The EU is evaluating food irradiation rules due to the process being less used as “driven by industry and consumer fears […] The evaluation found the directives had been inefficient at ensuring a level playing field between EU and non-EU countries and, because of a labeling requirement, had affected businesses’ ability to use irradiation.” As in the U.S., right now irradiation is mostly used for “dried aromatic herbs, spices and vegetable seasonings.” However, as we know, irradiation is a safe and effective process to eliminate pathogens!
• There are at least 6 foodborne outbreaks that the FDA is currently investigating. See the Table below.
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  • (Source: Food Safety News – https://link.achesongroup.com/85h).

TAG Risk Matrix Shows Both Positive and Negative Trends

As TAG’s Risk Matrix shows this week, the U.S. is continuing to show high rates of COVID cases, but there are some encouraging signs in the slowing rate of transmissions.

The trends are following the trajectory that TAG has predicted – following a similar two-month trend as that of the UK, with Delta cases spiking, and now beginning to appear to decline in some states. On the positive side, there is some sign of flattening of the transmission rate across the US. However, we are also seeing the return to school having a negative impact, with more than 100,000 child COVID cases traceable to the schools. Whether this will affect workplaces is yet to be seen.

With all this, TAG continues to recommend that workplaces keep all the standard protections (vaccinations, masks, distancing, cleaning, etc.) in place, and consideration of testing may also be helpful at this time.

Table 1.

Figure 1.

Table 2.

Table 3.

• In Tuesday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed the natural immunity from the COVID-19 virus. Read more here.
• COVID-19 outbreak in California school traced to unvaccinated teacher. Half of the elementary school students in an unvaccinated teacher’s classroom developed COVID-19 after the teacher — infected and symptomatic — worked for 2 days and read to the students while not wearing a mask, according to researchers. The exposures led to a larger outbreak at the California school in May that was associated with the delta variant, with many cases occurring among children not eligible for vaccination, illustrating a continued need for nonpharmaceutical prevention strategies during the pandemic, the researchers wrote in MMWR. (Article includes illustration)
• Monoclonal antibody combination reduces COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths by nearly 80%. Interim phase 3 data released by Brii Biosciences showed that the company’s monoclonal antibody combination therapy reduced the combined endpoint of COVID-19 hospitalizations and death by 78% in high-risk patients compared with placebo.
• The U.S. has now topped 100,000 daily COVID-19 hospital cases; the last time numbers were this high was winter of 2020 (pre-vaccinations). In states like Georgia, Mississippi, and Florida, intensive care units have reached their capacities (both in hospital bed shortages and also healthcare worker shortages).
• CIDRAP continues by reporting that the Delta variant poses double the hospital risk as the Alpha variant, in fact “[t]he chances of either hospitalization or emergency care within 14 days were 1.5 times higher in those infected with Delta.” Ultimately, the study, recently published in Lancet highlights, “outbreaks of the Delta variant in the unvaccinated could burden healthcare systems more than the Alpha strain.”
• In Asia, COVID-19 continues to surge to its highest numbers in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan.
• A new COVID-19 variant has been discovered in South Africa (since May 2021); thus far, it is the most mutated strain found. This strain is now considered a variant of interest. There have only been 100 sequences that have been reported globally since May, so sequencing has not provided as much of an insight into what’s going on. However, certain mutations it carries are linked to “increased transmissibility and reduced neutralization” as well as “mutations that could impact neutralization and replication fitness.” Read more from CIDRAP and The Jerusalem Post.
• The E.U. is proposing new travel restrictions for unvaccinated U.S. visitors. Other countries removed from the E.U.’s “safe list” include Israel, Kosovo, Lebanon, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. All countries have had an increase in cases in the last 2 weeks.
• Half of U.S. teens are partially vaccinated against COVID-19; while there has been a recent rise in COVID-19 cases, “the highest surges are in schools that have not followed the current guidelines and that data shows schools are more a reflection of the community landscape rather than propagator of more cases.”

Food Safety & Public Health

• With respect to the S. Department of Labor, this week is Labor Rights Week: “All workers in the United States, regardless of where they’re from, have the same right to a safe and healthful workplace and full payment of wages earned under federal law.”
• The influenza vaccine for the 2021 – 2022 flu season has been released by the FDA and is available for distribution by manufacturers! It is time to consider encouraging your workers to be vaccinated for the flu!
• The FDA released the results from its first survey of PFAS in nationally distributed processed foods (including some processed baby foods). While 164 of 167 foods did not have detectable levels of PFAS, three food samples contained detectable levels, including fish sticks, canned tuna, and protein powder. However, based on current data and information, none of these foods have levels that would necessitate avoidance.